CODOS Update December 22, 2020: State of the Snowpack, WWA’s USER GUIDE, Happy Holidays
Greetings from Silverton,
We hope all is well in your world and that you are preparing for a relaxing time off over the holidays. We are now approximately a third of the way through the snow season with the good part still to come. Last year, after reaching a near normal snowpack around April 1, hot/dry conditions the rest of the snow season coupled with very dry soil conditions robbed us of what would otherwise have been a near normal runoff season. Currently, we are still trying to shake off the extreme/exceptional drought we have been stuck under ever since, which has also made soil moisture conditions even worse than they were a year ago.
After a few precipitation events the last couple weeks snowpack accumulation is near normal for the Arkansas and Rio Grande Basins, and the San Miguel/Dolores/Animas/San Juan Basin and northern basins are below normal - mostly 70%-75% of normal with the Yampa ~64% . Given the dry soils we will likely need higher than normal SWE going into spring in order to see near normal runoff.
So far this winter dust-in-snow severity is not out of the norm for this time of year. Colorado typically receives about 1-2 dust-on-snow events by January 1 and this winter we have received two events; one with the first winter storm of the season October 25 and the other likely with a storm November 10 that brought wind speeds up to 100 mph. Being the first couple storms of the season this dust is near or in some areas on ground and won’t play a role come snowmelt.
The forecast calls for a trough moving through this afternoon with best chances for snow being tonight through Wednesday morning. This system is set to favor northern and central mountains. Beyond Wednesday it looks like a ridge will move in bringing dry and sunny conditions thru Christmas. Into the weekend and early next week another possibly moisture laden trough may materialize, the details of which are still evolving, fingers crossed on this one.
This Just In…….
The Western Water Assessment just published a Snowpack Monitoring Guide in the Rocky Mountain West. A User Guide for water managers, decision makers, forecasters, researchers, and others who use, collect, and produce snow information. This a succinct yet very informative document explaining snow data collection, its importance, and how to use existing data products.
Backcountry Safety
Please be safe when playing in the mountains this winter. Due to the way the snowpack started out this season, initial accumulation followed by a long period of dry conditions, means this is the weakest snowpack we’ve seen since 2012 according to the CAIC. Quality weather data is crucial for assessing snow safety, of which our three stations: Putney, Senator Beck, and Swamp Angel, are vital tools utilized by CAIC, CDOT, and emergency managers in the North San Juans. Below are a few links to a few avalanche forecasting and education websites:
Off Piste, Tragedy in the Alps Video: https://vimeo.com/300630599
Know Before You Go, Online Education: https://kbyg.org/learn/
Silverton Avalanche School: http://avyschool.com/
Avalanche.org tutorial: https://avalanche.org/avalanche-tutorial/get-the-forecast/
Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC): https://avalanche.state.co.us/
Station Data: https://avalanche.state.co.us/observations/weather-stations/
Utah Avalanche Center: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/
AAA: https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/
AAI: https://www.americanavalancheinstitute.com/
The AvalancheGuys YouTube channel from Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center: https://www.youtube.com/user/AvalancheGuys
SnowPilot is a platform to record and view snow profiles from across the world. You can keep track of the snowpack in your home mountains or in a region you plan to visit: https://snowpilot.org
How to Practice Avalanche Rescue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2LnkU0ZCU0&t=193s
How to Practice Avalanche Rescue: Snowmobile Edition: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ML499MMDfM&t=182s
SNOW SCHOOL CAncelled
It is likely no surprise but due to COVID we have to cancel our annual field class “Snow School for Water Professionals”. Usually we hold the class around February in Silverton, where, using a mixture of classroom discussion and hands-on field sessions aim to enhance understanding of snowpack processes, snowpack monitoring, and snowpack data. Keep it in mind as we will definitely offer it next year.
YEAR END Support FOR Center for Snow
This holiday season please consider supporting Center for Snow and become part of the team working to monitor and study our high mountains, documenting climate change and its impacts. Your donations are tax deductible, and contributions of $100 or more also qualify for a 25% tax credit against your Colorado income taxes.
Your participation will:
Operate the Senator Beck Study Basin and keep the near 20-year energy balance and climate station network data record flowing.
Support dust-on-snow observations and reporting across Colorado.
Support state-of-the-science research and modeling efforts
You can donate on the CSAS website or by mailing a check to Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, PO Box 190, Silverton, CO 81433.
Take Care,
Jeff Derry