Greetings from Silverton,
After D1-4 resurfaced across the majority of the landscape on May 26, and a start to the weekend of variable weather bringing a little precipitation, cooler temps and cloud cover, the last few days have seen sunnier/warmer temperatures, further degradation of snowpack albedo, and slight to significant increases in streamflows across the state.
Many streams are near their median peak time-frame and, for this time of year, there is still a good amount of snow to melt. With D1-4 now at the surface, where it exists (please see May CODOS report for spatial coverage of dust events http://www.codos.org/codosupdates/may92017), it is unlikely we will receive enough additional precipitation in the form of snow to cover dust for more than a day. With the season's accumulated dust now persistently at the snow surface, we can expect continued albedo degradation enhancing snowmelt due to increased absorption of solar radiation. That said, weather the remainder of the snowmelt season will be a determining factor in how streamflows play out. Overcast conditions will slow melt rates, which there are chances of in most mountainous regions over the next few days.
The forecast the next ~6 days is calling for partly cloudy conditions today with chance of thunderstorms at higher elevations. Beginning Friday mountain regions will hold onto convective thunderstorm activity and chances of precipitation through Monday. But for the most part the weekend will be predominately dry throughout the state with max daily temperatures being above normal for this time of year. Beginning Tuesday a high pressure will usher in dry and very warm conditions with lower valleys seeing temps in the 90's.
Please see current conditions at Senator Beck Basin below.
ince we reported dust emergence on May 26 snowpack albedo has further degraded. We are seeing more evenings with minimum air temperatures above freezing, meaning the upper ~9" of the snowpack is not refreezing at night, allowing snowmelt to pick up where it left off the day before. Average air temperatures are expected to be above normal this weekend.
On May 31 SWE from a snow profile at SASP was 18.3", while at Red Mt SNOTEL it was 15.1". Average daily discharge at SBB on May 31 was 9.2 cfs. Judging by our snow profiles going back to WY2004 and the current weather forecast, SASP is on track to be snow-all-gone by mid-June. For this time of year, there is still a good amount of snow to melt in the major Colorado basins.
